| 魏宇.2025年天然橡胶期货市场回顾及2026年展望[J].橡胶科技,2026,24(1):0015-0020. |
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| 2025年天然橡胶期货市场回顾及2026年展望 |
| Review of Natural Rubber Futures Market in 2025 and Outlook for 2026 |
| 投稿时间：2025-11-24 修订日期：2025-11-24 |
| DOI：10.12137/j.issn.2095-5448.2026.01.0015 |
| 中文关键词: 天然橡胶 期货市场 供应 需求 |
| 英文关键词: natural rubber futures market supply demand |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2025年天然橡胶价格走势呈现“高波动、弱预期、强现实”的特征，并在宏观情绪为主的影响下，穿插着阶段性的基本面博弈，若供给端暂无显著矛盾预期，2026年大概率仍将维持与宏观强相关的走势，尤其易受海外不确定性因素的冲击。从供给端来看，产能拐点仍待验证，原料价格对盘面定价的影响力减弱，需求的主导作用更强；从需求端来看，全钢载重轮胎内需表现维持良好，外需存在增长空间，半钢轮胎内需可能会出现阶段性增长放缓，预计外需维持稳定增长。价格底部抬升仍是趋势，但过程不会一帆风顺。主要风险因素为需求未及预期、异常天气及宏观因素超预期变化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In 2025，natural rubber price trend has primarily exhibited characteristics of “high volatility，weak expectations，and strong reality.” Under the influence of macro sentiment as the dominant factor，it has been interspersed with periodic fluctuations arising from shifting fundamental factors.If there are no major expected contradictions on supply side，then natural rubber price movement in 2026 will likely remain a macro-highly correlated trend，particularly susceptible to shocks from overseas uncertainty.On the supply side，the timing of a capacity turning point has yet to be confirmed.Meanwhile，the impact of raw material prices on market pricing has weakened，and the dominant role of demand is stronger.On the demand side，domestic demand for truck and bus radial tires remains good，while overseas demand still has room to grow.The domestic demand of passenger car radial tires may experience a temporary slowdown in growth，but overseas demand is expected to maintain steady growth.A gradual increase in bottom prices remains the prevailing trend，but the process will not go smoothly.Major risks include unexpected shifts in demand，abnormal weather，and unforeseen changes in macroeconomic factors. |
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