| 童长征.天然橡胶期货市场分析[J].橡胶科技,2017,15(2):5-10. |
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| 天然橡胶期货市场分析 |
| Analysis of Natural Rubber Futures Market |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 天然橡胶 期货市场 需求 供应 |
| 英文关键词: natural rubber futures market demand supply |
| 基金项目: |
| 中图分类号:TQ332. 1；F74 |
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| 摘要点击次数: 662 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 对天然橡胶期货市场进行分析。基于天然橡胶产量缩减、橡胶树种植面积和橡胶林单位开割面积产量增大以及我国汽车尤其是重型卡车销量增长，2016年天然橡胶价格呈震荡上扬态势。2017年，消费需求增长、经济复苏以及人民币贬值等因素将继续推动天然橡胶价格总体重心上移，但天然橡胶潜在产能充裕和美国对我国卡客车轮胎双反可能导致天然橡胶价格较大幅度回调，天然橡胶市场风险仍然存在。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In this paper，the natural rubber futures market is analyzed. In 2016，the nature rubber price increased due to the production cut，increase of rubber tree planting area and unit open cutting area yield，and growth of China’s auto sales，especially the growth of heavy truck sales. In 2017，the demand is continuously increasing，the economy is recovering，and Chinese currency（RMB） shows the trend of devaluation，which will continue to push the natural rubber price to go up. However，the risk of natural rubber market remains due to the potential large production capacity and the United States investigation of antidumping duty and countervailing duty on China’s truck tires and passenger car tires，which might cause the significant decrease of natural rubber price in 2017. |
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