| 童长征.天然橡胶需求低迷，供应宽松，价格低位振荡——2015年天然橡胶期货市场回顾与2016年展望[J].橡胶科技,2016,14(2):5-11. |
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| 天然橡胶需求低迷，供应宽松，价格低位振荡——2015年天然橡胶期货市场回顾与2016年展望 |
| Low Demand，Oversupply and Seesawed Low Price of NR——NR Futures Market in 2015 and Outlook in 2016 |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 天然橡胶 期货市场 沪胶 日胶 轮胎 市场走势 |
| 英文关键词: NR futures market Shanghai rubber futures Tokyo rubber futures tire market trend |
| 基金项目: |
| 中图分类号:TQ332.1；F74 |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1250 |
| 全文下载次数: 857 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 2015年天然橡胶期货价格重心继续下移，沪胶指数最低跌至每吨9 435元，12月底回升至每吨10 000元左右。2015—2016年天然橡胶需求缺乏亮点，购置税减半政策推动国内汽车销量上行，但商用车及重型货车的销量及其增长率都处于近年来的低位水平，轮胎产量大幅下降，轮胎企业产业外移；橡胶价格低迷，多数产胶国不同程度减产，但2006年以后橡胶树新种植面积形成的产能扩张持续影响市场，天然橡胶价格难以单边强势走高；橡胶行业出现供需新格局，去贸易商化、贸易金融化、产能产地化、过剩产能储备化、低端资源挤出化等新变化对天然橡胶市场产生不同程度的利多或利空影响；国内经济政策宽松、美国经济政策收紧，宏观政策因素提振胶价的动能不足。2016年天然橡胶价格将在每吨9 000～10 000元区间内低位振荡。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In 2015 NR futures prices continued dropping down.The lowest price of Shanghai rubber futures fell to CNY 9 435 per ton，though it increased to about CNY 10 000 per ton by the end of December.The overall situation in 2015—2016 was the lack of demand for NR due to a significant drop of tire production and industry transfer to other countries.The drop of tire production was affected by the low sales level and low growth rate of commercial vehicles and trucks，despite that the domestic sales number increased with the promotion of half purchase tax policy.The rubber prices were low，which resulted in production cut in most rubber producing countries.But the capacity expansion since 2006 continued to affect the market price of natural rubber，and thus it is difficult to go up in any single country.A new pattern of supply and demand is emerging and the market is heavily influenced by new changes，for example，trend of no trader，trade finance development，capacity localization，reserves of excess capacity and removal of low-end resources.In the short term，there is no driving force from macroeconomic policy to increase the market price，with loose economic policy in China and tightened economic policy in the United States.It is expected that the NR prices in 2016 are in the range of CNY 9 000～10 000 per ton. |
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